针对年龄的隔离对COVID-19的影响。

IF 1.8 4区数学 Q3 ECOLOGY

Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI:10.1080/17513758.2020.1795285

Alastair Jamieson-Lane, Eric Cytrynbaum

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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们模拟了针对年龄的保护性隔离在多大程度上可以用于减少由新型冠状病毒COVID-19引起的ICU入院。利用新西兰的人口统计数据，我们证明，将年龄门槛降低到50岁，可以大幅减少ICU入院人数，并表明，对于足够严格的隔离方案，将该国三分之一的人口隔离8个月，足以避免在整个疫情过程中ICU容量过大。预计其他国家也会出现类似的结果，不过需要根据当地的年龄人口统计和医院设施进行一些细微的调整。

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Effects of age-targeted sequestration for COVID-19.

We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.

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来源期刊

Journal of Biological Dynamics ECOLOGY-MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

3.60%

发文量

审稿时长

33 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Biological Dynamics, an open access journal, publishes state of the art papers dealing with the analysis of dynamic models that arise from biological processes. The Journal focuses on dynamic phenomena at scales ranging from the level of individual organisms to that of populations, communities, and ecosystems in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology, population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, neuroscience, environmental science, and animal behavior. Papers in other areas are acceptable at the editors’ discretion. In addition to papers that analyze original mathematical models and develop new theories and analytic methods, the Journal welcomes papers that connect mathematical modeling and analysis to experimental and observational data. The Journal also publishes short notes, expository and review articles, book reviews and a section on open problems.