Mohsin Ali, Syed Touqeer H Shah, Mudassar Imran, Adnan Khan
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The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19.
We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Biological Dynamics, an open access journal, publishes state of the art papers dealing with the analysis of dynamic models that arise from biological processes. The Journal focuses on dynamic phenomena at scales ranging from the level of individual organisms to that of populations, communities, and ecosystems in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology, population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, neuroscience, environmental science, and animal behavior. Papers in other areas are acceptable at the editors’ discretion. In addition to papers that analyze original mathematical models and develop new theories and analytic methods, the Journal welcomes papers that connect mathematical modeling and analysis to experimental and observational data. The Journal also publishes short notes, expository and review articles, book reviews and a section on open problems.