无症状分类、隔离隔离在COVID-19传播中的作用。

IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q3 ECOLOGY
Mohsin Ali, Syed Touqeer H Shah, Mudassar Imran, Adnan Khan
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引用次数: 67

摘要

本文建立了冠状病毒病(COVID-19)传播的确定性流行病模型。我们在模型中加入了无症状区、隔离区和隔离区,因为研究强调了这些人群对疾病传播的重要性。我们计算了基本繁殖数[公式:见文],结果表明,对于[公式:见文]来说,这种疾病已经灭绝,而对于[公式:见文]来说,这种疾病是地方性的。通过敏感性分析,我们确定[公式:见文本]对检疫和隔离率最敏感,并且需要保持高水平的检疫和隔离以控制疾病。在此基础上,我们制定了最佳的检疫和隔离策略,并注意到在爆发的早期阶段需要保持高水平。利用武汉疫情的数据,我们估计[公式:见文本],虽然与文献中的其他估计一致,但在较低的一侧。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-19.

We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.

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来源期刊
Journal of Biological Dynamics
Journal of Biological Dynamics ECOLOGY-MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
28
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Biological Dynamics, an open access journal, publishes state of the art papers dealing with the analysis of dynamic models that arise from biological processes. The Journal focuses on dynamic phenomena at scales ranging from the level of individual organisms to that of populations, communities, and ecosystems in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology, population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, neuroscience, environmental science, and animal behavior. Papers in other areas are acceptable at the editors’ discretion. In addition to papers that analyze original mathematical models and develop new theories and analytic methods, the Journal welcomes papers that connect mathematical modeling and analysis to experimental and observational data. The Journal also publishes short notes, expository and review articles, book reviews and a section on open problems.
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