Epidemiological shift of hepatitis A in EAGLE countries - a projection.

Purpose: Many world regions are developing quickly and experiencing increasing levels of sanitation, causing an epidemiological shift of hepatitis A in these areas. The shift occurs when children avoid being infected with the disease until a later age due to cleaner water sources, food, and hygiene practices in their environment; but if they are infected at later age, the disease is much more severe and lost productivity costs are higher. The purpose of this paper is to examine what could occur if an epidemiological shift of the disease continues in these regions, and what type of future burden hepatitis A may have in a hypothetical rapidly developing country.

Design/methodology/approach: Initially, annual hepatitis A mortality was regressed on the Human Development Index (HDI) for each country classified as an emerging and growth-leading economy (EAGLE) to provide an overview of how economic development and hepatitis A mortality related. Data from the various EAGLE countries were also fit to a model of hepatitis A mortality rates in relation to HDI, which were both weighted by each country's 1995-2010 population of available data, in order to create a model for a hypothetical emerging market country. A second regression model was fit for the weighted average annual hepatitis A mortality rate of all EAGLE countries from the years 1995 to 2010. Additionally, hepatitis A mortality rate was regressed on year.

Findings: Regression results show a constant decline of mortality as HDI increased. For each increase of one in HDI value in this hypothetical country, mortality rate declined by 2.3016 deaths per 100,000 people. The hypothetical country showed the HDI value increasing by 0.0073 each year. Also, results displayed a decrease in hepatitis A mortality rate of 0.0168 per 100,000 people per year. Finally, the mortality rate for hepatitis A in this hypothetical country is projected to be down to 0.11299 deaths per 100,000 people by 2030 and its economic status will fall just below the HDI criteria for a developed country by 2025.

Originality/value: The hypothetical country as a prototype model was created from the results of regressed data from EAGLE countries. It is aimed to display an example of the health and economic changes occurring in these rapidly developing regions in order to help understand potential hepatitis A trends, while underscoring the importance of informed and regular policy updates in the coming years. The author believes this regression provides insight into the patterns of hepatitis A mortality and HDI as these EAGLE countries undergo rapid development.