确定SIR流行病模型中未报告病例的数量。

IF 0.8 4区数学 Q4 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI:10.1093/imammb/dqz013

A Ducrot, P Magal, T Nguyen, G F Webb

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引用次数: 23

摘要

根据公共卫生来源报告的病例数据，对SIR流行病模型的参数和初始值的确定进行了分析。分析的目的是了解未报告病例与报告病例之间的关系。在许多流行病中，报告的病例只占未报告病例的一小部分。这个比例可以通过从报告的病例数据中识别模型的参数来估计。该分析应用于1968-1969年香港季节性流感在纽约市的流行。

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Identifying the number of unreported cases in SIR epidemic models.

An SIR epidemic model is analysed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values, based upon reported case data from public health sources. The objective of the analysis is to understand the relationship of unreported cases to reported cases. In many epidemic diseases the reported cases are a small fraction of the unreported cases. This fraction can be estimated by the identification of parameters for the model from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the Hong Kong seasonal influenza epidemic in New York City in 1968-1969.

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来源期刊

Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima 生物-生物学

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Formerly the IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology. Mathematical Medicine and Biology publishes original articles with a significant mathematical content addressing topics in medicine and biology. Papers exploiting modern developments in applied mathematics are particularly welcome. The biomedical relevance of mathematical models should be demonstrated clearly and validation by comparison against experiment is strongly encouraged. The journal welcomes contributions relevant to any area of the life sciences including: -biomechanics- biophysics- cell biology- developmental biology- ecology and the environment- epidemiology- immunology- infectious diseases- neuroscience- pharmacology- physiology- population biology