行为疫苗模型中的最佳公共卫生干预:季节性、行为和潜伏期之间的相互作用。

IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 BIOLOGY
Bruno Buonomo, Rossella Della Marca, Alberto d'Onofrio
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引用次数: 11

摘要

由于“伪理性”行为,对预防儿童疾病的疫苗的犹豫和拒绝正在蔓延:父母过分重视疫苗的真实和想象的副作用。尽管如此,“公共卫生系统”(PHS)可能会发起支持接种疫苗的公共运动。为了确定此类运动的最佳时间分布,我们将最优控制理论应用于d'Onofrio等人(2012,PLoS ONE, 7, e45653)基于易感感染去除(SIR)的行为疫苗接种模型的扩展。在传播率的季节性波动下,新模型为易感-暴露-感染-去除(SEIR)型。我们的目标是尽量减少这种疾病的总成本:疾病负担、疫苗接种费用和一种不太常见的成本:实施公共卫生服务运动的经济负担。我们应用庞特里亚金最小原理,并数值探讨季节性、人类行为和潜伏期对目标疾病控制和传播的影响。我们重点关注两个值得注意的案例研究:低失业率;中等)疫苗副作用的相对感知风险,相对较低(患病率)。非常低的模仿速度。一个普遍的结果是,季节性可能对旨在通过增加疫苗接种率来控制目标传染病传播的小灵通运动产生显著影响。特别是,季节性变化幅度越大,需要付出的努力也就越大,这反过来又有利于诱导疫苗的摄取,因为季节性强度越大,疫苗倾向维持的时间就越长。然而,这种增加的努力并不能完全弥补季节性对流行率的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Optimal public health intervention in a behavioural vaccination model: the interplay between seasonality, behaviour and latency period.

Hesitancy and refusal of vaccines preventing childhood diseases are spreading due to 'pseudo-rational' behaviours: parents overweigh real and imaginary side effects of vaccines. Nonetheless, the 'Public Health System' (PHS) may enact public campaigns to favour vaccine uptake. To determine the optimal time profiles for such campaigns, we apply the optimal control theory to an extension of the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR)-based behavioural vaccination model by d'Onofrio et al. (2012, PLoS ONE, 7, e45653). The new model is of susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) type under seasonal fluctuations of the transmission rate. Our objective is to minimize the total costs of the disease: the disease burden, the vaccination costs and a less usual cost: the economic burden to enact the PHS campaigns. We apply the Pontryagin minimum principle and numerically explore the impact of seasonality, human behaviour and latency rate on the control and spread of the target disease. We focus on two noteworthy case studies: the low (resp. intermediate) relative perceived risk of vaccine side effects and relatively low (resp. very low) speed of imitation. One general result is that seasonality may produce a remarkable impact on PHS campaigns aimed at controlling, via an increase of the vaccination uptake, the spread of a target infectious disease. In particular, a higher amplitude of the seasonal variation produces a higher effort and this, in turn, beneficially impacts the induced vaccine uptake since the larger is the strength of seasonality, the longer the vaccine propensity remains large. However, such increased effort is not able to fully compensate the action of seasonality on the prevalence.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Formerly the IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology. Mathematical Medicine and Biology publishes original articles with a significant mathematical content addressing topics in medicine and biology. Papers exploiting modern developments in applied mathematics are particularly welcome. The biomedical relevance of mathematical models should be demonstrated clearly and validation by comparison against experiment is strongly encouraged. The journal welcomes contributions relevant to any area of the life sciences including: -biomechanics- biophysics- cell biology- developmental biology- ecology and the environment- epidemiology- immunology- infectious diseases- neuroscience- pharmacology- physiology- population biology
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