传染性疾病复发模型:单纯疱疹病毒2型的个案研究。

Q1 Mathematics
Jinliang Wang, Xiaoqing Yu, Heidi L Tessmer, Toshikazu Kuniya, Ryosuke Omori
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引用次数: 6

摘要

背景:单纯疱疹病毒2型(HSV-2)是最常见的性传播疾病之一。尽管目前还没有获得许可的2型单纯疱疹病毒疫苗,但对疫苗潜在影响的理论研究被认为是重要的,最近由几位研究人员进行了这项研究。虽然在以前的研究中考虑了每个特殊情况的区隔数学模型,但迄今为止很少有全局稳定性的结果。结果:本文建立了HSV-2多群体SVIRI流行模型,该模型考虑了疫苗接种、疫苗免疫力下降和感染复发的影响。由于群体的数量是任意的,我们的模型可以应用于各种结构,如风险、性别和年龄组结构。对于我们的模型,我们定义了基本繁殖数,并证明了当0≤1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,当0>1时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的。基于这一全局稳定性结果,我们将我们的模型应用于风险组结构并使用2001年至2014年的美国数据来估计HSV-2的r0。通过灵敏度分析,我们发现,在2-3的范围内,我们得到了近似的结果。此外,利用估计的参数,我们讨论了根除HSV-2的最佳疫苗接种策略。结论:通过对最佳接种策略的探讨,得出以下结论。(1)提高疫苗效力比增加疫苗数量更有效。(2)尽管女性个体的传播风险高于男性个体,但在女性和男性个体之间几乎平均分配可用疫苗比将疫苗集中在女性人群中更有效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2.

Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2.

Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2.

Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2.

Background: Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 (HSV-2) is one of the most common sexually transmitted diseases. Although there is still no licensed vaccine for HSV-2, a theoretical investigation of the potential effects of a vaccine is considered important and has recently been conducted by several researchers. Although compartmental mathematical models were considered for each special case in the previous studies, as yet there are few global stability results.

Results: In this paper, we formulate a multi-group SVIRI epidemic model for HSV-2, which enables us to consider the effects of vaccination, of waning vaccine immunity, and of infection relapse. Since the number of groups is arbitrary, our model can be applied to various structures such as risk, sex, and age group structures. For our model, we define the basic reproduction number ℜ0 and prove that if ℜ0≤1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if ℜ0>1, then the endemic equilibrium is so. Based on this global stability result, we estimate ℜ0 for HSV-2 by applying our model to the risk group structure and using US data from 2001 to 2014. Through sensitivity analysis, we find that ℜ0 is approximately in the range of 2-3. Moreover, using the estimated parameters, we discuss the optimal vaccination strategy for the eradication of HSV-2.

Conclusions: Through discussion of the optimal vaccination strategy, we come to the following conclusions. (1) Improving vaccine efficacy is more effective than increasing the number of vaccines. (2) Although the transmission risk in female individuals is higher than that in male individuals, distributing the available vaccines almost equally between female and male individuals is more effective than concentrating them within the female population.

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来源期刊
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling is an open access peer-reviewed journal adopting a broad definition of "biology" and focusing on theoretical ideas and models associated with developments in biology and medicine. Mathematicians, biologists and clinicians of various specialisms, philosophers and historians of science are all contributing to the emergence of novel concepts in an age of systems biology, bioinformatics and computer modelling. This is the field in which Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling operates. We welcome submissions that are technically sound and offering either improved understanding in biology and medicine or progress in theory or method.
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