Research on dynamic prediction of tubular extension limit and operation risk in extended-reach drilling

Extended-reach wells have been widely applied to efficient development of oil and gas resources in complex areas such as oceans, beaches, lakes and mountains. Extended-reach drilling has the characteristics of many constraints, high implementation difficulty and high operation risk, and the accurate prediction of tubular extension limits and operation risks is very significant for safe drilling. Firstly, local tubular deflection curves and additional contact forces due to discontinuity effects are firstly deduced, and an amended torque & drag model of tubular strings is built. Secondly, a dynamic inversion method of friction factors was presented by introducing the weight function related to well depth and considering the difference of friction factors on cased and open-hole sections. Next, a dynamic prediction of tubular extension limit and operation risk is built by combining the amended tubular mechanical model, inversion model of friction factors. At last, the above theoretical models are applied to a case study. The results indicate that curvature discontinuity and stiffness discontinuity increase contact forces obviously in build-up and azimuth turning sections, which further increase friction force and torque a lot. The long-term, short-term and real-time tubular extension limits and operation risks can be obtained by setting different values of p.