Matched-pair analysis: identification of factors with independent influence on the development of PTLD after kidney or liver transplantation.

Background: Post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD) adversely affects patients' long-term outcome.

Methods: The paired t test and McNemar's test were applied in a retrospective 1:1 matched-pair analysis including 36 patients with PTLD and 36 patients without PTLD after kidney or liver transplantation. Matching criteria were age, gender, indication, type of transplantation, and duration of follow-up. All investigated PTLD specimen were histologically positive for EBV. Risk-adjusted multivariable regression analysis was used to identify independence of risk factors for PTLD detected in matched-pair analysis. The resultant prognostic model was assessed with ROC-curve analysis.

Results: Patients suffering with PTLD had shorter mean survival (p = 0.004), more episodes of CMV infections or reactivations (p = 0.042), and fewer recipient HLA A2 haplotypes (p = 0.007), a tacrolimus-based immunosuppressive regimen (p = 0.052) and higher dosages of tacrolimus at hospital discharge (Tac dosage) (p = 0.052). Significant independent risk factors for PTLD were recipient HLA A2 (OR = 0.07, 95 % CI = 0.01-0.55, p = 0.011), higher Tac dosages (OR = 1.29, 95 % CI = 1.01-1.64, p = 0.040), and higher numbers of graft rejection episodes (OR = 0.38, 95 % CI = 0.17-0.87, p = 0.023). The following prognostic model for the prediction of PTLD demonstrated good model fit and a large area under the ROC curve (0.823): PTLD probability in % = Exp(y)/(1 + Exp(y)) with y = 0.671 - 1.096 × HLA A2-positive recipient + 0.151 × Tac dosage - 0.805 × number of graft rejection episodes.

Conclusions: This study suggests prognostic relevance for recipient HLA A2, CMV, and EBV infections or reactivations and strong initial tacrolimus-based immunosuppression. Patients with risk factors may benefit from intensified screening for PTLD.