考虑到邻省效应和随机噪声的 COVID-19 数据现象学模型。

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-10-05 DOI:10.1111/stan.12278

Julia Calatayud, Marc Jornet, Jorge Mateu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们模拟了卡斯蒂利亚-莱昂（西班牙）第一波疫情期间 COVID-19 的发病率。省内动态可能受广义逻辑图支配，但缺乏空间结构。为了将各省联系起来，我们通过一个与密度无关的参数将每日新感染病例联系起来，该参数具有正空间相关性。输入参数的点值通过优化程序进行拟合。为适应每日数据的显著变化（幅度突然增大或减小），我们在模型中加入了随机噪声，并通过最大似然估计法对其参数进行校准。计算得出的随机响应路径和概率区域与数据十分吻合。

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A phenomenological model for COVID-19 data taking into account neighboring-provinces effect and random noise.

We model the incidence of the COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the epidemic in Castilla-Leon (Spain). Within-province dynamics may be governed by a generalized logistic map, but this lacks of spatial structure. To couple the provinces, we relate the daily new infections through a density-independent parameter that entails positive spatial correlation. Pointwise values of the input parameters are fitted by an optimization procedure. To accommodate the significant variability in the daily data, with abruptly increasing and decreasing magnitudes, a random noise is incorporated into the model, whose parameters are calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation. The calculated paths of the stochastic response and the probabilistic regions are in good agreement with the data.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.