{"title":"在风中飘荡?用广义加性模型检验天气对犯罪空间分布的影响。","authors":"Rannveig Hart, Willy Pedersen, Torbjørn Skardhamar","doi":"10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Oslo, the capital of Norway, is situated in a North European cool climate zone. We investigate the effect of weather on the overall level of crime in the city, as well as the impact of different aspects of weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation) on the spatial distribution of crime, net of both total level of crime, time of day and seasonality. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to map level of and the spatial distribution of crime, and how it was impacted by weather, in a more robust manner than in previous studies. There was slightly more crime in pleasurable weather (i.e. low precipitation and wind speed and high temperatures). However, neither temperature, precipitation nor wind speed impacted the spatial distribution of crime in the city.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2.</p>","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9525942/pdf/","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Blowing in the wind? Testing the effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime using Generalized Additive Models.\",\"authors\":\"Rannveig Hart, Willy Pedersen, Torbjørn Skardhamar\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Oslo, the capital of Norway, is situated in a North European cool climate zone. We investigate the effect of weather on the overall level of crime in the city, as well as the impact of different aspects of weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation) on the spatial distribution of crime, net of both total level of crime, time of day and seasonality. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to map level of and the spatial distribution of crime, and how it was impacted by weather, in a more robust manner than in previous studies. There was slightly more crime in pleasurable weather (i.e. low precipitation and wind speed and high temperatures). However, neither temperature, precipitation nor wind speed impacted the spatial distribution of crime in the city.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":37844,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Crime Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9525942/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Crime Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2022/10/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Crime Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/10/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Blowing in the wind? Testing the effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime using Generalized Additive Models.
Oslo, the capital of Norway, is situated in a North European cool climate zone. We investigate the effect of weather on the overall level of crime in the city, as well as the impact of different aspects of weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation) on the spatial distribution of crime, net of both total level of crime, time of day and seasonality. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to map level of and the spatial distribution of crime, and how it was impacted by weather, in a more robust manner than in previous studies. There was slightly more crime in pleasurable weather (i.e. low precipitation and wind speed and high temperatures). However, neither temperature, precipitation nor wind speed impacted the spatial distribution of crime in the city.
Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-022-00171-2.
期刊介绍：
Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.
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