Current & future medical costs of childhood obesity in Alaska.

This study examines the medical costs of childhood obesity in Alaska, today and in the future. We estimate that 15.2 percent of those ages 2 to 19 in Alaska are obese. Using parameters from published reports and studies, we estimate that the total excess medical costs due to obesity for both adults and children in Alaska in 2012 were $226 million, with medical costs of obese children and adolescents accounting for about $7 million of that total. And those medical costs will get much higher over time, as today's children transition into adulthood. Aside from the 15.2 percent currently obese, another estimated 20 percent of children who aren't currently obese will become obese as adults, if current national patterns continue. We estimate that the 20-year medical costs--discounted to present value--of obesity among the current cohort of Alaska children and adolescents will be $624 million in today's dollars. But those future costs could be decreased if Alaskans found ways to reduce obesity. We consider how reducing obesity in several ways could reduce future medical costs: reducing current rates of childhood obesity, rates of obese children who become obese adults, or rates of non-obese children and adolescents who become obese adults. We undertake modest reductions to showcase the potential cost savings associated with each of these channels. Clearly the financial savings are a direct function of the obesity reductions and therefore the magnitude of the realized savings will vary accordingly. Also keep in mind that these figures are only for the current cohort of children and adolescents; over time more generations of Alaskans will grow from children into adults, repeating the same cycle unless rates of obesity decline. And finally, remember that medical costs are only part of the broader range of social and economic costs obesity creates.