Echocardiography predicts major adverse cardiovascular events after renal transplantation.

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality after renal transplantation. We analysed whether pre-transplant transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) predicted major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after transplant.

Methods: We retrospectively analysed clinical and TTE data from patients having renal transplantation at a single centre between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2010. The TTE were classified as: group A - normal; group B - mild abnormalities expected in renal failure; group C - moderate to severe abnormalities likely to change management. They were also scored based on four independent risk factors [age ≥50, left ventricular (LV) end systolic diameter ≥3.5 cm, LV wall thickness ≥1.4 cm and mitral annulus calcification]. Post-transplantation clinical notes were examined for MACE (death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and surgical or percutaneous revascularisation).

Results: There were 343 patients, mean age 47 (range 21-83) years, 210 of whom were male. MACE occurred in 29 (8.5%) at a mean of 3.6 (SD 3.3) years after transplantation. They were older (p ≤ 0.001), had larger LV mass (p = 0.02), LV wall thickness (p = 0.008) and left atrial size (p = 0.001) than those without MACE. The MACE rate for groups A, B and C were 1.8, 13.6 and 16.4% (p ≤ 0.001), respectively. Using the score, the risk of MACE was 4.7, 10.7, 9.2 and 40% for scores 0, 1, 2 and 3 (p = 0.023), respectively.

Conclusion: Preoperative transthoracic echocardiography identifies patients at risk of death or non-fatal cardiovascular events even late after renal transplantation. This suggests that echocardiography might be useful to identify patients requiring more aggressive long-term treatment of modifiable vascular risk factors.