一般增长平衡法:对移民开放的人口的一种重新表述。

P N Mari Bhat
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引用次数: 43

摘要

本文提出了一种用于估计人口普查和登记完整性的一般增长平衡方法的重新表述,以便使其甚至适用于受迁移影响的人口。它还讨论了一种新的线拟合程序,在输入数据受到年龄误报严重影响的国家可能很有用。该方法适用于人口普查或调查中有两个时间点的人口年龄分布数据的国家。紧跟着Brass最初的提议,它涉及调整“部分”出生率,以适应特定年龄的增长和迁移率的干扰。除了校正死亡率外,该方法还有助于推断人口普查的相对完整性,并在某些条件下对出生率作出可靠的估计。以1981年至1991年期间印度北方邦男性人口为例说明了该方法的应用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
General growth balance method: A reformulation for populations open to migration.

This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the 'partial' birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991.

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