Cigarette taxes and respiratory cancers: new evidence from panel co-integration analysis.

Using a set of state-level longitudinal data from 1954 through 2005, this study investigates the "long-run equilibrium" relationship between cigarette excise taxes and the mortality rates of respiratory cancers in the United States. Statistical tests show that both cigarette excise taxes in real terms and mortality rates from respiratory cancers contain unit roots and are co-integrated. Estimates of co-integrating vectors indicated that a 10 percent increase in real cigarette excise tax rate leads to a 2.5 percent reduction in respiratory cancer mortality rate, implying a decline of 3,922 deaths per year, on a national level in the long run. These effects are statistically significant at the one percent level. Moreover, estimates of co-integrating vectors show that higher cigarette excise tax rates lead to lower mortality rates in most states; however, this relationship does not hold for Alaska, Florida, Hawaii, and Texas.