{"title":"指数平滑法在流行性腮腺炎预测预警中的应用","authors":"Yun-ping Shi, Jia-qi Ma","doi":"","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.</p>","PeriodicalId":56402,"journal":{"name":"中国疫苗和免疫","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2010-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps].\",\"authors\":\"Yun-ping Shi, Jia-qi Ma\",\"doi\":\"\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56402,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"中国疫苗和免疫\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2010-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"中国疫苗和免疫\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中国疫苗和免疫","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
[Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps].
Objective: To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction.
Methods: To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007.
Results: The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%.
Conclusions: It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.
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