Towards 2011 output geographies: exploring the need for, and challenges involved in, maintenance of the 2001 output geographies.

This article describes and presents early results from the ESRC-funded Census 2011Geog project, which aims to develop and evaluate automated procedures to maintain (split, merge or re-design) the 2001 Census output geographies in order to create the 2011 output geographies for England and Wales. The article explores population change at the small area level between 2001 and 2005-06, and considers the extent to which the 2001 Census output geographies are likely to be appropriate for the release of 2011 Census data. It concludes that the vast majority of output geography areas are unlikely to have breached population thresholds by 2011, but that a small proportion of areas will require maintenance. The article finishes with a discussion of the key decisions that need to be made before the automated procedures can be implemented operationally.