{"title":"犯罪学预测的有效性。","authors":"L E OHLIN, O D DUNCAN","doi":"10.1086/220398","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"An index is proposed for measuring the efficiency of prediction. Values are computed for the principal prediction tables in the literature, permitting rigorous comparisons of studies and alternate scoring methods. The efficiency of prediction is found to drop markedly in follow-up samples. The test of efficiency employed is contrasted with previous, inadequate methods of evaluation. The types of error in prediction suggest future research.","PeriodicalId":86247,"journal":{"name":"The American journal of sociology","volume":"54 5","pages":"441-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1949-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/220398","citationCount":"50","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The efficiency of prediction in criminology.\",\"authors\":\"L E OHLIN, O D DUNCAN\",\"doi\":\"10.1086/220398\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"An index is proposed for measuring the efficiency of prediction. Values are computed for the principal prediction tables in the literature, permitting rigorous comparisons of studies and alternate scoring methods. The efficiency of prediction is found to drop markedly in follow-up samples. The test of efficiency employed is contrasted with previous, inadequate methods of evaluation. The types of error in prediction suggest future research.\",\"PeriodicalId\":86247,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The American journal of sociology\",\"volume\":\"54 5\",\"pages\":\"441-52\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1949-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/220398\",\"citationCount\":\"50\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The American journal of sociology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1086/220398\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The American journal of sociology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1086/220398","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
An index is proposed for measuring the efficiency of prediction. Values are computed for the principal prediction tables in the literature, permitting rigorous comparisons of studies and alternate scoring methods. The efficiency of prediction is found to drop markedly in follow-up samples. The test of efficiency employed is contrasted with previous, inadequate methods of evaluation. The types of error in prediction suggest future research.
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