Time trends in cancer mortality in central Serbia.

Objective: To examine cancer mortality trends in Central Serbia (1985-2002).

Methods: Cancer mortality rates were based on the official death certificates (n=192849). They were standardized for age and sex.

Results: In the observed period, mortality rates showed a tendency to increase in both males (y = 118.54 + 2.27x, p = 0.0001) and females (y = 83.32 + 1.02x, p = 0.0001). Mortality of lung cancer increased in both sexes (y = 32.38 + 0.86x, p < 0.001 for males, y = 6.25 + 0.25y, p < 0.001 for females), as did colorectal cancer (y = 10.87 + 033x, p < 0.001 for males, y = 8.51 + 0.09x, p < 0.05 for females). Breast cancer mortality rates increased (y = 14.48 + 0.35x, p = 0.0001), and so did cervical cancer (y = 5.14 + 0.14x, p < 0.01). Mortality of gastric cancer in males has been moderately decreasing after 1990s (y(19902002) = 13.67-0.20x, p < 0.01), while prostate cancer mortality remained relatively stable.

Conclusions: Increasing cancer mortality trends in the last 18 years in Central Serbia indicate the extremely urgent needs for health authorities to adopt measures of cancer prevention that proved effective in other countries.