Meeting the future long-term care needs of the baby boomers.

Frail older adults are one of the most vulnerable groups in the nation. Disproportionately female, widowed, and in their 80s and 90s, most older people with disabilities living outside of nursing homes have little education and limited financial resources. Providing help can overwhelm caregivers. Even under the most optimistic scenario long-term care burdens on families and institutions will increase substantially in coming decades. If disability rates decrease steadily and substantially over time the number of older adults using paid home care will increase by three-fourths between 2000 and 2040 and the number in nursing homes will increase by two-thirds. Total paid home care hours will more than triple.