口罩对传染病传播的影响。

IF 4.1 3区 数学 Q1 Mathematics
Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-03-18 DOI:10.1186/s13662-021-03321-z
Lili Han, Qiuhui Pan, Baolin Kang, Mingfeng He
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文基于无症状病毒携带者具有传染性和所有有症状感染者都戴口罩的条件,通过建立微分方程模型,研究了易感人群和无症状病毒携带者佩戴口罩对传染病传播的影响。首先给出了所建立模型解的存在唯一性、有界性和正性,并给出了模型的基本复制数r0。然后,针对固定戴口罩比例、随时间变化的易感人群和无症状病毒携带者两例戴口罩案例,将数值模拟结果以一系列图片的形式显示出来,定量描述了戴口罩人群比例、口罩防护效果、开始戴口罩时间对疫情的影响。我们的研究结果表明,在口罩佩戴比例与新增确诊病例和新增死亡病例呈正相关的情况下,虽然在患者高发时期该比例会接近1,但控制此类传染病传播的效果远不如始终保持较高的口罩佩戴比例(≥0.66)的情况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Effects of masks on the transmission of infectious diseases.

Effects of masks on the transmission of infectious diseases.

Effects of masks on the transmission of infectious diseases.

Effects of masks on the transmission of infectious diseases.

In the present paper, based on the conditions that asymptomatic virus carriers are contagious and all symptomatic infected individuals wear masks, we study the impact of wearing masks in the susceptible and the asymptomatic virus carriers on the spread of infectious diseases by developing a differential equation model. At first, we give the existence, uniqueness, boundedness, and positivity of the solution as well as the basic reproduction number R 0 for the established model. Then, for two cases of wearing masks in the susceptible and the asymptomatic virus carriers where the proportion of wearing masks is fixed and the proportion of wearing masks changes with time, the results of the numerical simulation are shown in a series of pictures, and quantitative description of effects of the proportion of the population wearing masks, the protective effect of masks, and the time when they start wearing masks on the epidemic is given. Our results show that under the situation that the proportion of wearing masks is positively related to the confirmed new cases and new deaths, though the proportion will be close to 1 during the high incidence of patients, the effect on controlling the spread of such infectious diseases is far worse than the case of always maintaining a relatively higher proportion (≥0.66) of wearing masks.

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来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.
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