流行病学的数学计算:新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)案例研究。

IF 1.3 4区 生物学 Q3 BIOLOGY
Theory in Biosciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 Epub Date: 2021-03-07 DOI:10.1007/s12064-021-00339-5
Saikat Batabyal, Arthita Batabyal
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引用次数: 0

摘要

冠状病毒 COVID-19 的爆发正以前所未有的速度向人类传播,并在世界各地夺走了数千人的生命。科学家们正在试图绘制冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)的传播模式图。全球许多国家都处于封锁阶段。在本文中,我们预测了冠状病毒 COVID-19 的影响,并通过数学模型预测了它何时会降低全球的传播率。在这项研究工作中,我们的研究基于众所周知的易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)分区模型系列的扩展,随后我们观察到新模型在不改变其物理意义的情况下变为(SEIR)。冠状病毒的稳定性分析取决于其基本繁殖率的变化。病毒在重症感染病例中的进展率和康复率对控制疫情起着重要作用。社会隔离、国家封锁、自我隔离、家庭隔离和全球公共卫生系统的戒备状态对模型系统参数的影响很大,这些参数会随着时间的推移改变现实世界中的康复率、死亡率和活动性污染病例的效果。数学模型的预测能力取决于可用数据的准确性及其对问题的应用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Mathematical computations on epidemiology: a case study of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

Mathematical computations on epidemiology: a case study of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

Mathematical computations on epidemiology: a case study of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

Mathematical computations on epidemiology: a case study of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

The outbreak of coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading at an unprecedented rate to the human populations and taking several thousands of life all over the world. Scientists are trying to map the pattern of the transmission of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Many countries are in the phase of lockdown in the globe. In this paper we predict about the effect of coronavirus COVID-19 and give a sneak peak when it will reduce the transmission rate in the world via mathematical modelling. In this research work our study is based on extensions of the well-known susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) family of compartmental models and later we observe the new model changes into (SEIR) without changing its physical meanings. The stability analysis of the coronavirus depends on changing of its basic reproductive ratio. The progress rate of the virus in the critically infected cases and the recovery rate have major roles to control this epidemic. The impact of social distancing, lockdown of the country, self-isolation, home quarantine and the wariness of global public health system have significant influence on the parameters of the model system that can alter the effect of recovery rates, mortality rates and active contaminated cases with the progression of time in the real world. The prognostic ability of mathematical model is circumscribed as of the accuracy of the available data and its application to the problem.

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来源期刊
Theory in Biosciences
Theory in Biosciences 生物-生物学
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
9.10%
发文量
21
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Theory in Biosciences focuses on new concepts in theoretical biology. It also includes analytical and modelling approaches as well as philosophical and historical issues. Central topics are: Artificial Life; Bioinformatics with a focus on novel methods, phenomena, and interpretations; Bioinspired Modeling; Complexity, Robustness, and Resilience; Embodied Cognition; Evolutionary Biology; Evo-Devo; Game Theoretic Modeling; Genetics; History of Biology; Language Evolution; Mathematical Biology; Origin of Life; Philosophy of Biology; Population Biology; Systems Biology; Theoretical Ecology; Theoretical Molecular Biology; Theoretical Neuroscience & Cognition.
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