Predicting the "vagaries" of mortality: the causes of death in Bamako from 1974 to 1985.

"The overall downward trend in African mortality is interrupted by recurring epidemics. This article investigates the nature of those temporary fluctuations, using cause-of-death data drawn from deaths registered in Bamako [Mali] over an 11-year period. The use of time-series analysis produces findings that can be used in three ways: first, to provide a short-term forecasting tool for public health officials; secondly, to clarify the relationship between the cause of death and exogenous mortality factors, particularly climatic and economic; thirdly, to assist in the analysis of synergies between disease and malnutrition, and intra-household transmission as an aggravating factor contributing to the seriousness of a disease."