{"title":"人口动态史上与logistic律有关的一些未知事件:伟大流行病学家的教训。","authors":"P Manfredi","doi":"","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The author discusses the work of \"the two great epidemiologists R. Ross and A. G. McKendrick. This talk is basically devoted to their 'lesson' about logistic theory and it is organised as follows: section 2 is devoted to McKendrick's [1911] contribution to the growth of microorganism populations, a paper which was not widely acclaimed, but which marks the first experimental laboratory verification of the logistic law. Section 3 is also devoted to McKendrick and to the way he repeatedly derived the logistic equation as a model for 'simple epidemics'. Finally, in section 4, we present Ross's 'A priori pathometry' theory that really emphasizes...the role played by the logistic law as the 'first principle' of the mathematical epidemiology.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85293,"journal":{"name":"Polish population review","volume":" 7","pages":"41-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1995-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Some unknown episodes in the history of population dynamics concerning the logistic law: the lesson of the great epidemiologists.\",\"authors\":\"P Manfredi\",\"doi\":\"\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>The author discusses the work of \\\"the two great epidemiologists R. Ross and A. G. McKendrick. This talk is basically devoted to their 'lesson' about logistic theory and it is organised as follows: section 2 is devoted to McKendrick's [1911] contribution to the growth of microorganism populations, a paper which was not widely acclaimed, but which marks the first experimental laboratory verification of the logistic law. Section 3 is also devoted to McKendrick and to the way he repeatedly derived the logistic equation as a model for 'simple epidemics'. Finally, in section 4, we present Ross's 'A priori pathometry' theory that really emphasizes...the role played by the logistic law as the 'first principle' of the mathematical epidemiology.\\\"</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":85293,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Polish population review\",\"volume\":\" 7\",\"pages\":\"41-52\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1995-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Polish population review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Polish population review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
作者讨论了“两位伟大的流行病学家R. Ross和A. G. McKendrick”的工作。这次演讲基本上致力于他们关于逻辑理论的“教训”,并按以下方式组织:第2部分致力于麦肯德里克[1911]对微生物种群增长的贡献,这篇论文没有得到广泛好评,但它标志着逻辑定律的第一个实验实验室验证。第三节还专门介绍了McKendrick,以及他反复推导logistic方程作为“简单流行病”模型的方法。最后,在第4部分,我们将介绍罗斯的“先验病理测量”理论,该理论真正强调……逻辑律作为数学流行病学的“第一原理”所起的作用。
Some unknown episodes in the history of population dynamics concerning the logistic law: the lesson of the great epidemiologists.
The author discusses the work of "the two great epidemiologists R. Ross and A. G. McKendrick. This talk is basically devoted to their 'lesson' about logistic theory and it is organised as follows: section 2 is devoted to McKendrick's [1911] contribution to the growth of microorganism populations, a paper which was not widely acclaimed, but which marks the first experimental laboratory verification of the logistic law. Section 3 is also devoted to McKendrick and to the way he repeatedly derived the logistic equation as a model for 'simple epidemics'. Finally, in section 4, we present Ross's 'A priori pathometry' theory that really emphasizes...the role played by the logistic law as the 'first principle' of the mathematical epidemiology."