论人口的增长和分散。

T Puu
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引用次数: 5

摘要

在1921年未发表的硕士论文中,年轻的霍特林发明了一个精巧的人口增长和扩散模型。直到1978年沃尔多·托布勒和艾伦·威尔逊将其编辑成一篇文章,这一贡献才广为人知。即使在那时,它也没有引发任何捐款的爆发。与此同时,在1951年,斯凯勒姆为非人类群体发明了同样的模型。与经济学不同,它在生态学上取得了巨大的成功。在最近的一篇文章中,Skellam被命名为生态扩散之父,并列出了1000多篇关于这个主题的文章。人们曾多次尝试解这个方程,但都不太成功。Hotelling和Skellam模型都假设了一个给定的自然可以支持的饱和人口。1985年,作者建议在Hotelling模型中引入一个明确的生产函数,因为一个人生产他自己的生活资料。此外,有人提出扩散与人均生产力的空间差异有关,而不是与人口密度的空间差异有关。目前的贡献是一种反驳。结果表明,原Hotelling模型的平稳解是周期性的,并陷入负总体,而改进模型避免了这一问题。因此,它可以用来显示凝聚结构是如何演变的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On growth and dispersal of population.

In his unpublished Master's thesis of 1921, the young Hotelling invented an ingenious model of population growth and diffusion. The contribution remained widely unknown until Waldo Tobler and Alan Wilson edited it as an article in 1978. Not even then did it trigger any outburst of contributions. Meanwhile, in 1951, Skellam invented the same model for non-human populations. Unlike in economics, it was a great success in ecology. In a recent contribution, Skellam is named Father of Ecological Diffusion and more than 1000 articles on the subject are listed. There were many attempts at solving the equation, but none were quite successful. The Hotelling and Skellam models both assumed a given saturation population that nature could support. In 1985 the present author suggested that an explicit production function be introduced in the Hotelling model, as a man produces his own means of subsistence. Moreover, it was proposed that diffusion be related to spatial differences in per capita productivity, rather than to those in population density. The present contribution is a rejoinder. It is shown that the stationary solutions to the original Hotelling model are periodic and dip into negative populations, whereas this is avoided by the modified model suggested. It can thus be used to show how agglomerative structures may evolve.

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