A simple estimate of the general population frequency of the MHC susceptibility gene for autoimmune polygenic disease.

We wished to determine the frequencies of the MHC and non-MHC susceptibility genes for polygenic autoimmune diseases like type 1 diabetes (IDDM). We used Mendelian inheritance and the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium to calculate the frequencies of mating pairs and susceptible offspring under classical recessive and dominant inheritance of the MHC susceptibility gene. We then analyzed the distribution of haplotype sharing by affected sib pairs of the 4 MHC haplotypes in each of the kinds of mating pairs in terms of the frequency of the disease susceptibility gene. For IDDM, the analysis was consistent with a recessive, but not a dominant, MHC susceptibility gene of frequency 0.525 at a distribution of 55, 38 and 7% of affected sib pairs who share 2, 1 and 0 MHC haplotypes, respectively. A simple relationship was obtained: if inheritance is recessive, the MHC susceptibility gene frequency is the square root of the fraction of affected sib pairs who share no MHC haplotypes multiplied by 4. For recessive inheritance, affected sib pairs who share no haplotypes are solely in families where both parents are homozygous MHC-susceptible. Although homozygous MHC susceptibles represent over 25% of the population, only 2-3% of them are IDDM-susceptible at non-MHC susceptibility loci, also required for disease expression. Predictions from our analysis fit all published observations of the familial occurrence of disease. The analysis is general, simple and provides a single estimate (not a range) of the MHC susceptibility gene frequency. This approach should be applicable to other MHC-determined polygenic diseases.