{"title":"进化和人类的选择。","authors":"A R Rogers","doi":"10.1002/9780470515372.ch13","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This chapter reviews previous work on an evolutionary model describing the effect of time delays on human preferences. The model explains why the long-term real interest rate is usually near 3% and why rates of crime and driving accidents are highest among young adults. It does not succeed in explaining the phenomenon of preference reversal. The chapter reports new results on uncertainty and on a more comprehensive model allowing consumption to have simultaneous effects on mortality and fertility.</p>","PeriodicalId":10218,"journal":{"name":"Ciba Foundation symposium","volume":"208 ","pages":"231-49; discussion 249-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1997-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evolution and human choice over time.\",\"authors\":\"A R Rogers\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/9780470515372.ch13\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This chapter reviews previous work on an evolutionary model describing the effect of time delays on human preferences. The model explains why the long-term real interest rate is usually near 3% and why rates of crime and driving accidents are highest among young adults. It does not succeed in explaining the phenomenon of preference reversal. The chapter reports new results on uncertainty and on a more comprehensive model allowing consumption to have simultaneous effects on mortality and fertility.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10218,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ciba Foundation symposium\",\"volume\":\"208 \",\"pages\":\"231-49; discussion 249-52\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1997-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ciba Foundation symposium\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470515372.ch13\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ciba Foundation symposium","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470515372.ch13","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
This chapter reviews previous work on an evolutionary model describing the effect of time delays on human preferences. The model explains why the long-term real interest rate is usually near 3% and why rates of crime and driving accidents are highest among young adults. It does not succeed in explaining the phenomenon of preference reversal. The chapter reports new results on uncertainty and on a more comprehensive model allowing consumption to have simultaneous effects on mortality and fertility.
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