正式采用通胀目标制的宏观经济效应

IF 1.5 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-08-12 DOI:10.1111/ecin.70081

Surjit S. Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, Prakash Loungani

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了正式采用通胀目标制对发达经济体、新兴市场和发展中经济体通胀、增长和通胀预期锚定的影响。我们发现，虽然早期的IT采用者（2000年以前）在采用后看到了通货膨胀率的下降，但从那时起，IT采用者仅在大约一半的情况下取得了这样的成功。我们的国家级分析（使用综合控制方法）表明，在大约三分之一的情况下，采用IT带来了显著的通货膨胀收益。我们发现，系统地采用信息技术会导致较差的增长结果这一担忧得到的支持有限。

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Macroeconomic effects of formal adoption of inflation targeting

We examine the impact of formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation, growth and anchoring of inflation expectations in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies. We find that while the early adopters of IT (pre-2000) saw declines in inflation rates following adoption, IT adopters since then have enjoyed such success in only about half the cases. Our country-level analysis—using the synthetic control method—shows that IT adoption delivers significant inflation gains in about a third of the cases. We find limited support for the concern that adoption of IT systematically leads to poorer growth outcomes.

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来源期刊

Economic Inquiry ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published since 1962, (formerly Western Economic Journal), EI is widely regarded as one of the top scholarly journals in its field. Besides containing research on all economics topic areas, a principal objective is to make each article understandable to economists who are not necessarily specialists in the article topic area. Nine Nobel laureates are among EI long list of prestigious authors.