评估气候变化对遗产风险的规模挑战。

IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-20 DOI:10.1007/s00704-026-06386-6
Scott Allan Orr, Shixin Zhao, Helen Thomas, Paloma Guzman, Courtney Hotchkiss, Erin Seekamp, Xiao Xiao, Chiara Aquilani, Ebrahim Ghaderpour, Josep Grau-Bové, Maya Ishizawa, Paul Lankester, Ionut Cristi Nicu, Michele Ortolani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

遗产是一个活生生的过程——我们从过去留下的遗产,包括社会和生态系统,我们今天生活在其中,并将其传给后代。评估气候变化风险对于了解灾害、暴露、脆弱性和应对如何相互作用从而对遗产产生影响至关重要。这些相互作用跨越不同的空间和时间尺度。目前的风险评估方法对气候数据、遗产过程和治理决策的尺度进行了隐性评估,导致了错位,限制了风险的有效识别、解释和管理。在这里,我们表明,当观测、测量和操作尺度偏离时,这些失调就会出现。观测尺度定义了风险评估的边界和时间范围。测量尺度涉及所使用数据的分辨率,从全球气候模型到现场监测。操作规模代表了潜在过程的规模,从短期洪水到几十年的维护和知识传播。当这些尺度出现分歧时,不匹配会模糊人们如何理解和管理气候变化风险。这些不匹配不仅揭示了技术挑战,还揭示了知识系统、制度行动和治理结构之间更深层次的分歧。意识到规模的方法可以帮助将风险评估转化为有效的行动,调整数据、流程和责任。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Challenges of scale in assessing the risks of climate change for heritage.

Heritage is a living process-our legacy from the past, including social and ecological systems, within which we live today and pass on to future generations. Assessing climate change risks is essential for understanding how hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and responses interact to produce impacts for heritage. These interactions operate across diverse spatial and temporal scales. Current approaches to risk assessment evaluate the scales of climate data, heritage processes, and governance decisions implicitly, leading to misalignments that limit how effectively risks are identified, interpreted, and managed. Here we show that these misalignments arise when observational, measurement, and operational scales diverge. The observational scale defines the boundary and timeframe of a risk assessment. The measurement scale concerns the resolutions of data used, from global climate models to site-level monitoring. The operational scale represents those of underlying processes, from short-term flooding to multi-decadal maintenance and knowledge transmission. When these scales diverge, mismatches obscure how climate change risks are understood and managed. These mismatches reveal not only technical challenges but also deeper divides between knowledge systems, institutional actions, and governance structures. A scale-aware approach can help translate risk assessments into effective actions, aligning data, processes, and responsibilities.

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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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