Emergent lock-ins in sustainability transitions: the example of energy system decentralisation

Background

Energy systems are currently undergoing fundamental transformations, with several possible energy futures emerging, including various decentralised ones. However, transformations are characterised by uncertainty, and it is difficult to assess the sustainability of these different energy futures. There is a danger that premature choices could lead to lock-ins to sub-optimal pathways as seen from a broad sustainability perspective. This paper explores the role of potential lock-ins on the pathways towards emerging configurations of decentralised, carbon-neutral energy systems. Our analysis draws on four emerging ideal-type decentralisation configurations of ‘energy futures’ (individual system optimisation, individual autonomy, collective system optimisation, and collective autonomy) and the institutional, actor and technological preconditions required for them to become dominant forms of energy system organisation.

Results

We developed a forward-looking, ex-ante approach to identify emergent lock-ins that may be created along the transition pathways.

Conclusions

These new lock-ins have implications for the sustainability of decentralised energy futures and how such sustainability should be assessed. Such an analysis can inform sustainable energy policies, helping to keep different options open and to avoid a premature lock-in to potentially sub-optimal socio-technical energy configurations.