Assessing the resilience of a key health service: The response of acute surgical provision in England to the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ObjectiveInternational health systems had the opportunity to assess the resilience of core health services to severe disruption following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines the resilience of a core health service to shocks from COVID-19. We compare outcomes following emergency admissions in England during the second (Winter 2020/21) and third (Winter 2021/22) major waves of COVID-19 with the first wave and historic admissions from 2016 to 2019.MethodsThis cohort study included adult emergency admissions for five common acute surgical conditions: appendicitis, symptomatic gallstone disease, intestinal obstruction, symptomatic diverticular disease, and abdominal wall hernia in 122 acute hospital Trusts in England. Participants were 647,367 admissions in the hospital episode statistics (HES) inpatient database including 34,560 in the second wave and 36,628 in the third wave. Outcome was all-cause mortality at 90 days.ResultsThere were 1308 deaths in wave two (3.8% of admissions) and 1235 (3.4%) in wave three compared with 3431 (3.4%) in the historic cohort and 577 (4.7%) in wave one. Compared with pre-COVID admissions, we found weak evidence of increased mortality in the second wave. There was no evidence of increased mortality in the third wave, compared to historic cohorts the case-mix adjusted odds ratios were: appendicitis 0.96 (95% CI 0.49-1.87); gallstone disease 1.27 (95% CI 0.94-1.72); diverticular disease 1.04 (95% CI 0.79-1.36); hernia 1.06 (95% CI 0.76-1.47); and intestinal obstruction 1.02 (95% CI 0.87-1.19).ConclusionsBy the end of wave three, outcomes for emergency admissions with five common acute conditions had returned to pre-pandemic levels. Lessons learnt during the disruption of the first wave of COVID-19 helped the NHS in England adapt emergency surgical services during subsequent waves. These findings emphasise the importance of maintaining, or quickly restoring core service capacity to help patient outcomes return to pre-pandemic levels.