Global Burden of Thyroid Cancer in Adults Age 15-49 Years and Its Predictions: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Purpose: This study used the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to comprehensively analyze the burden of thyroid cancer in adults age 15-49 years globally.

Methods: Data from the GBD 2021 were used. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to assess the trends in thyroid cancer. Decomposition analysis was used to identify the factors contributing to the observed epidemiological changes in thyroid cancer. Projections of the thyroid cancer burden through 2044 were generated using the Nordpred modeling.

Results: In 2021, there were 96,287.8 thyroid cancer cases in adults globally. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR; EAPC = 1.68; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1.56 to 1.81) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate (EAPC = 0.21; 95% UI, 0.18 to 0.23) of thyroid cancer in adults showed an increasing trend, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (EAPC = -0.03; 95% UI, -0.05 to -0.01) showed a downward trend. Females showed an upward trend only in ASIR, whereas males were on the rise in all trends of age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021 globally. Decomposition analysis revealed that the population growth was a major contributor to the deaths and DALYs associated with thyroid cancer. By 2044, thyroid cancer incidence, deaths, and DALYs are projected to reach 121,096, 6,293, and 384,836, respectively.

Conclusion: Thyroid cancer, particularly among adults, has emerged as a global health concern. Our findings suggest that targeted strategies and measures are urgently needed for the prevention and management of thyroid cancer in adults, especially among males.