Relevance of earth observations of essential climate variables in wildfire adaptation

Wildfire extent and intensity are changing globally, driven by climate and socio-economic changes. Data across local to global scales are needed to support wildfire adaptation, yet comprehensive analysis of the main variables controlling multiple dimensions of wildfire risk including availability of global data for those variables is lacking. This review examines key variables influencing wildfire risk including fire danger (ignition and propagation), exposure and social and ecosystem vulnerability - the latter two often missing from fire risk analyses. We propose spatial and temporal requirements for these variables, a major gap in the literature, to support adaptation to future conditions. We assess which variables are monitored by national observation networks and evaluate the extent to which the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), traditionally used for climate system modeling, meet wildfire adaptation needs.

We identified 30 key wildfire risk variables, 25 of which are represented by GCOS ECV products within 18 ECVs. Cross-product analysis showed most are relevant to multiple wildfire risk components (ignition, propagation, exposure, societal and ecological vulnerability) and that many relevant to fire danger (ignition and propagation) also inform exposure and vulnerability. Currently, 20 key variables are operationally monitored by space agency satellites, with global coverage at estimated temporal and/or spatial resolution available for at least half of variables in each risk component, except exposure. Future research directions and global observation needs to strengthen wildfire adaptation challenges are identified. This work supports UNFCCC and Paris Agreement calls to identify observations needs for climate adaptation.