波多黎各的出生季节:利用美国占领下90年的出生情况重新思考模式的变化。

IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY
Alexis R Santos-Lozada, Wilmarí De Jesús Álvarez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了波多黎各的出生季节性,并探讨了模式是否在经济转型期间发生变化。我们编制了1935年至2024年期间约564万新生儿的月度出生统计。数据来源包括向美国机构提交的报告(1935-1966)、先前的出版物(1967-1971)和波多黎各人口动态统计系统(1972-2024)。为了评估时间浓度,我们计算了出生的季节性指数,并用黄土曲线模拟了5年模式。我们确定了四种不同的季节模式。从1943年到1949年,出生高峰在4 - 5月。1950年至1954年间,随着8月至10月出现新的峰值,这一峰值有所下降。从1955年开始,第三种模式出现了,年初出生人数减少,下半年达到峰值。这种模式一直稳定到2010年左右。2010年之后,我们观察到:(1)年初最小值缩小,(2)期间内变异性增加,(3)12月下降,尽管(4)8月至11月的峰值持续存在。这些变化与美国占领下发生的经济转型相一致,因此需要在未来的研究中重新审视文化或媒体影响的假设。鉴于观察到的模式,未来的研究应该探索经济变化可能对波多黎各出生季节性的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Season of birth in Puerto Rico: Rethinking changes in patterns using 90 years of births occurring under US occupation.

This article examines birth seasonality in Puerto Rico and explores whether patterns shift during periods of economic transformation. We compiled monthly birth counts for approximately 5.64 million births occurring from 1935 to 2024. Data sources include reports to U.S. agencies (1935-1966), a prior publication (1967-1971), and the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System (1972-2024). To assess the temporal concentration, we calculated a seasonal index of births and modeled 5-year patterns with LOESS curves. We identified four distinct seasonal patterns. From 1943 to 1949, births peaked in April - May. Between 1950 and 1954, this peak declined as a new one emerged from August to October. Beginning in 1955, a third pattern appeared, with fewer births early in the year and a peak in the second half. This pattern remained stable until about 2010. After 2010, we observe (1) a narrowing of early-year minimums, (2) increased within-period variability, and (3) a decline in December, though (4) the August to November peak persists. These changes align with economic transitions that occurred under US occupation, bringing forth the need to reexamine the hypothesis of cultural or media influence in future studies. Given observed patterns, future research should explore the role that economic shifts may have in shaping birth seasonality in Puerto Rico.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
14
期刊介绍: Biodemography and Social Biology is the official journal of The Society for the Study of Social Biology, devoted to furthering the discussion, advancement, and dissemination of knowledge about biological and sociocultural forces affecting the structure and composition of human populations. This interdisciplinary publication features contributions from scholars in the fields of sociology, demography, psychology, anthropology, biology, genetics, criminal justice, and others. Original manuscripts that further knowledge in the area of social biology are welcome, along with brief reports, review articles, and book reviews.
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