卡尼曼对气候风险的见解:来自有限理性、启发式和偏见的教训。

IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Environmental & Resource Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-14 DOI:10.1007/s10640-025-00980-4
W J Wouter Botzen, Louison D Thepaut, Sanchayan Banerjee
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引用次数: 0

摘要

丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)在行为经济学方面的开创性研究深刻地影响了环境经济学领域,形成了现在被称为行为环境经济学的理论。本文对环境经济学家如何将卡尼曼的理论应用于气候变化风险的个人决策进行了范围审查。我们关注影响气候适应决策的理性行为偏差,如损失规避、低概率事件的权重过低以及启发式驱动的系统1思维对分析性系统2推理的影响。我们的评估概述了方法的多样性,包括家庭调查和经济实验,用于分析气候适应能力投资和购买灾害保险等行动。我们综合了这些发现,展示了卡尼曼的遗产如何解释次优准备行为,并讨论了从这些见解中衍生出的政策策略,如风险沟通、推动和灾难准备的财政激励。最后,我们提出了一个未来研究的议程,以便更系统地评估卡尼曼在各种气候风险背景下的观点,并深化卡尼曼理论在解决需要改变人类行为的更广泛、更恶劣的环境问题方面的应用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Kahneman's Insights for Climate Risks: Lessons from Bounded Rationality, Heuristics and Biases.

Daniel Kahneman's pioneering research in behavioral economics has profoundly influenced the field of environmental economics, shaping what is now known as behavioral-environmental economics. This paper provides a scoping review of how Kahneman's theories have been applied by environmental economists to individual decision-making for climate change risks. We focus on deviations from rational behavior that impact climate adaptation decisions, such as loss aversion, the underweighting of low-probability events and the influence of heuristic-driven System 1 thinking over analytical System 2 reasoning. Our review outlines diversity in methodologies, including household surveys and economic experiments, used to analyze actions like investments in climate resilience and the purchase of disaster insurance. We synthesize these findings showing how Kahneman's legacy explains suboptimal preparedness behaviors and discuss policy strategies derived from these insights, such as risk communication, nudges, and financial incentives for disaster preparedness. We conclude by proposing an agenda for future research to more systematically assess Kahneman's ideas across various climate risk contexts and to deepen the application of Kahneman's theories in tackling broader, wicked environmental problems that require changing human behaviors.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.20
自引率
3.40%
发文量
100
期刊介绍: The primary concern of Environmental & Resource Economics (ERE) is the application of economic theory and methods to environmental issues and problems that require detailed analysis in order to improve management strategies. The contemporary environmental debate is in a constant state of flux and new or relatively unexplored topics are continually emerging. The Journal provides a forum for the further exploration of the causes, consequences and policy responses linked to these topics, across a range of spatial and temporal scales up to the global dimension. Contributions to the Journal should directly or indirectly be relevant to the policy formulation and application process. Areas of particular interest include: evaluation and development of instruments of environmental policy; cost-benefit and cost effectiveness analysis; sectoral environmental policy impact analysis; modelling and simulation; institutional arrangements; resource pricing and the valuation of environmental goods; environmental quality indicators. The editors wish to encourage a pluralistic approach to both theoretical and applied contributions. The publication of empirically based, policy-oriented research is given a high priority in the Journal in order to further critical discussion. Environmental & Resource Economics will also accept papers with an interdisciplinary approach, where this helps to improve knowledge of the real world complexities present, provided that the analysis retains links to or components of economic thinking. The Journal is required reading for economists, economic geographers and other academics, professionals and officials with a working interest in environmental matters.
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