动态影响网络自组织走向非正常的社会经济不稳定

IF 5.6 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Yicheng Wang , Didier Sornette , Ke Wu , Sandro Claudio Lera
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引用次数: 0

摘要

社会经济系统中的大规模同步通常是通过类似伊辛的动态来模拟的,其中关键的转变标志着集体结盟的开始。然而,即使远离这些临界点,当潜在的相互作用网络非常不正常时,也就是说,当影响不对称和分层时,不稳定性仍然可能出现。在这样的网络中,尽管系统是全局稳定的,但冲击可能会暂时放大,造成同步和集体转移的表象,而无需接近临界阈值。虽然这一见解扩大了我们对内生不稳定性的理解,但大多数现有模型都将影响网络视为固定的和外生的,留下了这样一个问题,即这种非正常结构是如何从代理行为中产生的。通过将金融市场作为社会经济系统的一个主要例子来研究,我们通过显示个体交易者动态和市场结果之间的反馈导致影响网络向越来越不正常的配置演变来解决这一差距。这个过程,我们称之为自组织非常态,驱动系统进入一个敏感的、不稳定的状态,而不需要微调。使用基于代理的模拟和来自eToro交易平台的数据,我们表明交易者根据观察到的表现和受欢迎程度来调整他们的社会关系,从而产生越来越集中的影响网络。这加强了市场趋势,放大了波动性,在行为和影响结构之间形成了一个反馈循环,有助于解释金融泡沫、意见级联或集体极化等社会经济不稳定的自发出现。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamic influence networks self-organize towards non-normal socio-economic instabilities
Large-scale synchronization in socio-economic systems is often modeled through Ising-like dynamics, where critical transitions mark the onset of collective alignment. Yet, even away from these critical points, instabilities can still arise when the underlying interaction network is strongly non-normal, that is, when influence is asymmetric and hierarchical. In such networks, shocks may be transiently amplified despite the system being globally stable, creating the appearance of synchronization and collective shifts without requiring proximity to a critical threshold. While this insight has expanded our understanding of endogenous instabilities, most existing models treat the influence network as fixed and exogenous, leaving open the question of how such non-normal structures might emerge from agent behavior. By studying financial markets as a prime example of a socio-economic system, we address this gap by showing that feedback between individual trader dynamics and market outcomes causes the influence network to evolve toward increasingly non-normal configurations. This process, which we term self-organized non-normality, drives the system into a sensitive, instability-prone state without requiring fine-tuning. Using agent-based simulations and data from the eToro trading platform, we show that traders adapt their social ties based on observed performance and popularity, producing increasingly centralized influence networks. This reinforces market trends and amplifies volatility, creating a feedback loop between behavior and influence structure that helps explain the spontaneous emergence of socio-economic instabilities such as financial bubbles, opinion cascades or collective polarization.
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来源期刊
Chaos Solitons & Fractals
Chaos Solitons & Fractals 物理-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
13.20
自引率
10.30%
发文量
1087
审稿时长
9 months
期刊介绍: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals strives to establish itself as a premier journal in the interdisciplinary realm of Nonlinear Science, Non-equilibrium, and Complex Phenomena. It welcomes submissions covering a broad spectrum of topics within this field, including dynamics, non-equilibrium processes in physics, chemistry, and geophysics, complex matter and networks, mathematical models, computational biology, applications to quantum and mesoscopic phenomena, fluctuations and random processes, self-organization, and social phenomena.
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