{"title":"系统地震预报","authors":"V. G. Gitis, A. B. Derendyaev","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700478","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—A computer method for systematic earthquake prediction is considered. The forecast is calculated regularly and for a constant time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone in which the epicenters of the target earthquakes are expected. The forecast is considered successful if all epicenters of target earthquakes in a given interval fall within the alarm zone. The method of the minimum area of alarm is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast within a limited alarm zone, making it possible to estimate the probability of a successful decision at the next forecast interval and providing an explanation of the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of a systematic forecast of earthquakes in Kamchatka is considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"563 - 574"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Systematic Earthquake Forecast\",\"authors\":\"V. G. Gitis, A. B. Derendyaev\",\"doi\":\"10.1134/S1069351325700478\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><b>Abstract</b>—A computer method for systematic earthquake prediction is considered. The forecast is calculated regularly and for a constant time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone in which the epicenters of the target earthquakes are expected. The forecast is considered successful if all epicenters of target earthquakes in a given interval fall within the alarm zone. The method of the minimum area of alarm is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast within a limited alarm zone, making it possible to estimate the probability of a successful decision at the next forecast interval and providing an explanation of the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of a systematic forecast of earthquakes in Kamchatka is considered.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":602,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth\",\"volume\":\"61 4\",\"pages\":\"563 - 574\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-10-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S1069351325700478\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S1069351325700478","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract—A computer method for systematic earthquake prediction is considered. The forecast is calculated regularly and for a constant time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone in which the epicenters of the target earthquakes are expected. The forecast is considered successful if all epicenters of target earthquakes in a given interval fall within the alarm zone. The method of the minimum area of alarm is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast within a limited alarm zone, making it possible to estimate the probability of a successful decision at the next forecast interval and providing an explanation of the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of a systematic forecast of earthquakes in Kamchatka is considered.
期刊介绍：
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth is an international peer reviewed journal that publishes results of original theoretical and experimental research in relevant areas of the physics of the Earth''s interior and applied geophysics. The journal welcomes manuscripts from all countries in the English or Russian language.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
