How would urban green spaces diverge under different development strategies? Comparison between Shenzhen and Zhuhai

Urban development strategies significantly shape the characteristics of urban green spaces (UGS). It remains unclear how UGS outcomes differ across cities that have followed distinct strategic trajectories. With this paper, we enrich the environmental justice debate by investigating differences in the provision of UGS resulting from different development strategies, focusing on three dimensions: availability, accessibility, and attractiveness. We choose Shenzhen and Zhuhai as study areas, as they shared similar conditions in 1980 but have significantly diverged in development trajectories over the past four decades. Specifically, by employing multi-source data, in combination with deep learning models and GIS methods, we quantify the availability, accessibility, and attractiveness of UGS. We then conduct a comprehensive comparison and analysis across these dimensions. The findings reveal substantial disparities between the cities in UGS availability, accessibility and attractiveness. Notably, the availability and accessibility of UGS in Shenzhen are more equitable than expected, despite its lower overall green space coverage. Conversely, Zhuhai, though characterized by higher UGS coverage and accessibility, exhibits significant inequalities in both aspects. The attractiveness of UGS in Shenzhen is found to be higher than in Zhuhai. In Zhuhai, UGS areas with greater sky openness tend to be perceived as more attractive, while in Shenzhen, locations with higher green visibility are more appealing. Rather than establishing causal links, this study highlights outcome differences in UGS provision under different development contexts. The comparative findings from Shenzhen and Zhuhai provide empirically grounded insights for urban strategy formulation, particularly for balancing economic development with spatial equity and environmental well-being.