Spatial patterns and non-linear determinants of rural outmigration: Multi-source data insights from villages in Suide county, China

Rapid urbanization in developing countries, such as China, has spurred significant rural-to-urban migration, leading to challenges such as village hollowing, which must be addressed to achieve rural revitalization. Collecting precise demographic data at the village level is challenging because of the infrequency of population censuses and the limited accuracy of rural data derived from nighttime light and electricity consumption. This study addresses these challenges by utilizing a multisource data approach, including census data, nighttime light, and electricity consumption, to develop an index for assessing village outmigration, and further employs a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model to investigate the major influencing factors and their nonlinear effects. An analysis of 339 villages in Suide County, Shaanxi Province, revealed substantial migration, with an average outmigration index value of 0.61. The spatial pattern of outmigration, which intensifies from central areas toward the peripheries, is closely aligned with major transportation routes, as validated by field research in representative villages. Transport accessibility to the county administrative center was also identified as a primary driver of the spatial distribution of outmigration, exhibiting a threshold effect and highlights the importance of transport accessibility in shaping rural demographics. Interpreted through the lens of push-pull theory, the study shows that outmigration is driven by a combination of “push” factors such as underdeveloped infrastructure and limited rural opportunities, and “pull” factors such as urban economic attraction and better access to services. Transport accessibility plays a pivotal role in mediating these forces. This novel methodology integrates multisource data to analyze population outmigration patterns and determinants in villages, offering insights into how sustainable rural development and rural revitalization can be achieved.