在文献之外：政策制定者揭示了金融资产高估的哪些问题？

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.108577

Lorenzo Menna, Rubens Moura, Martin Tobal

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了当主要金融中心的资产被高估时，全球冲击如何传导到新兴市场和发展中经济体（EMDEs）。虽然国际组织和历史经验早就对资产估值过高发出警告，但学术研究尚未仔细审视其作为全球金融脆弱性来源的作用。利用面板本地预测模型和看似合理的外生冲击，我们发现，全球金融状况收紧会提高新兴市场国家的主权利差，当资产被高估时，这种影响会被放大。强劲的外部平衡有助于缓冲这种影响，这在当前波动加剧的背景下尤为重要。

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Beyond the literature: what policymakers reveal about financial asset overvaluation?

This paper explores how global shocks transmit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) when assets in major financial centers are overvalued. While international organizations and historical experience have long warned about asset overvaluation, academic research has yet to scrutinize its role as a source of global financial vulnerability. Using a panel local projection model and plausibly exogenous shocks, we find that a tightening of global financial conditions raises sovereign spreads in EMDEs and the effect is amplified when assets are overvalued. Strong external balances help cushion this impact, which is particularly important in the current context of elevated volatility.

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance