乐观会带来伤害：管理预期和投资效率低下

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.108426

Licong Xing , Guchuan Qiu , Xuezhen Chen , Yaoyi Zhang

{"title":"乐观会带来伤害：管理预期和投资效率低下","authors":"Licong Xing , Guchuan Qiu , Xuezhen Chen , Yaoyi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108426","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Managerial cognitive biases critically affect corporate investment decisions. Unlike prior research on overconfidence, we examine the effect of managerial optimistic expectation on corporate investment. Using BERT to analyze Management Discussion and Analysis sections of Chinese A-share firms’ annual reports, we construct firm-level expectation measures. Analyzing 29,664 firm-year observations (2007–2023), we find optimistic expectations significantly reduce investment efficiency through overinvestment rather than underinvestment. Mechanism analysis reveals that over-optimism drives aggressive strategies, causing suboptimal resource allocation. Long-term institutional ownership and abundant cash flow amplify this effect. The impact intensifies when chairmen possess financial backgrounds, higher education, or during economic expansions. Our findings advance understanding of cognitive biases in investment decisions and inform corporate governance optimization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"86 ","pages":"Article 108426"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"When optimism hurts: Managerial expectations and investment inefficiency\",\"authors\":\"Licong Xing , Guchuan Qiu , Xuezhen Chen , Yaoyi Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108426\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Managerial cognitive biases critically affect corporate investment decisions. Unlike prior research on overconfidence, we examine the effect of managerial optimistic expectation on corporate investment. Using BERT to analyze Management Discussion and Analysis sections of Chinese A-share firms’ annual reports, we construct firm-level expectation measures. Analyzing 29,664 firm-year observations (2007–2023), we find optimistic expectations significantly reduce investment efficiency through overinvestment rather than underinvestment. Mechanism analysis reveals that over-optimism drives aggressive strategies, causing suboptimal resource allocation. Long-term institutional ownership and abundant cash flow amplify this effect. The impact intensifies when chairmen possess financial backgrounds, higher education, or during economic expansions. Our findings advance understanding of cognitive biases in investment decisions and inform corporate governance optimization.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12167,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Finance Research Letters\",\"volume\":\"86 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108426\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Finance Research Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325016800\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Finance Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325016800","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

管理认知偏差严重影响企业的投资决策。与以往对过度自信的研究不同，我们考察了管理层乐观预期对企业投资的影响。运用BERT对中国a股公司年报的“管理层讨论”和“分析”部分进行分析，构建了公司层面的期望测度。通过分析29,664个公司年度观察（2007-2023），我们发现乐观预期通过过度投资而不是投资不足显著降低了投资效率。机制分析表明，过度乐观驱动激进策略，导致资源配置次优。长期的机构所有权和充裕的现金流放大了这种效应。当董事长拥有金融背景、受过高等教育或处于经济扩张时期时，这种影响会加剧。我们的研究结果促进了对投资决策认知偏差的理解，并为公司治理优化提供了信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

When optimism hurts: Managerial expectations and investment inefficiency

Managerial cognitive biases critically affect corporate investment decisions. Unlike prior research on overconfidence, we examine the effect of managerial optimistic expectation on corporate investment. Using BERT to analyze Management Discussion and Analysis sections of Chinese A-share firms’ annual reports, we construct firm-level expectation measures. Analyzing 29,664 firm-year observations (2007–2023), we find optimistic expectations significantly reduce investment efficiency through overinvestment rather than underinvestment. Mechanism analysis reveals that over-optimism drives aggressive strategies, causing suboptimal resource allocation. Long-term institutional ownership and abundant cash flow amplify this effect. The impact intensifies when chairmen possess financial backgrounds, higher education, or during economic expansions. Our findings advance understanding of cognitive biases in investment decisions and inform corporate governance optimization.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance