A systematic review of literature on the decarbonization of the Nigerian power sector

Background

During COP26, the Federal Government of Nigeria announced that the country aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. However, experts are concerned that this ambitious pledge lacks a credible long-term emission reduction analysis and strategy, given Nigeria's reliance on oil. Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution indicates that more than half of the country's potential for reducing carbon emissions lies in the power sector. However, the installed capacity is inadequate, with 85% of grid-connected power plants and over 90% of off-grid power based on fossil fuels. In this article, the role of Nigeria's power sector in achieving the country's net-zero vision is investigated.

Main text

A systematic review of the literature on the decarbonization of the Nigerian power sector is conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) framework. Articles from credible peer-reviewed and grey literature databases published between 2010 and 2021 were analyzed. Based on the PRISMA methodology, 17 articles were retained for literature synthesis. The literature reviewed was classified into the following categories: energy generation and emission contributions, future emissions and reduction scenarios, drivers of emissions, emission reduction options, the economics of emissions reduction options, and policy.

Conclusions

From this review can be seen that 88% of the decarbonization literature consisted of scenario studies that included emission reductions, 6% were scenario studies that did not include policy interventions and 6% were non-scenario studies. 31% and 69% of the studies focused on medium- and long-term emission reductions, respectively. The study also showed that fossil fuels, GDP, inefficient power generation technologies, inefficient end-use technologies, transmission and distribution losses, poor renewable energy financing, increasing energy demand, and policies which are not based on scientific evidence are the drivers of emissions. Despite the government's commitment to providing good access to energy for its citizens and reducing its emissions footprint, power generation in Nigeria is still poor, with an installed capacity of less than 14GW. In addition, more than 85% of the country's power generation capacity is based on fossil fuels. Having made a public commitment to achieve net zero, Nigeria's next step is to explore the different scenarios that will help the country achieve its ambitious long-term goal without compromising its socio-economic development.