Stochastic Simulations and Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Peak Accelerations, Peak Velocities, and Response Spectra for the Ural Region

The characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Ural region are refined based on stochastic modeling of the records of local earthquakes. These characteristics correspond to transient characteristics from areas of stable continental seismicity to seismically active regions with crustal seismicity. A ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) describing the dependence of peak ground accelerations (PGA), peak ground velocities (PGV), and acceleration response spectrum amplitudes (SA) on rock soil on magnitude and distance is constructed for the Ural region. The GMPE is applicable in a wide range of magnitudes (M_W ~ 4–6.5) and distances (1–250 km) and can be used in seismic hazard assessment for the design and construction of earthquake-resistant structures in the Ural region. To account for the epistemic uncertainty of the estimates of seismic impacts in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and construct a logic tree, five alternative modern GMPEs from other regions are selected: a global model for crustal seismicity, two models developed for the mountain regions of the Swiss and French Alps, and two models for regions of stable continental seismicity—eastern North America and Great Britain. These models are tested using the array of synthetic ground motion parameters. The equation for the Swiss Alps proved to be the closest to the GMPE developed for the Urals.