The sustainable energy development dilemma in European countries: a time-series cluster analysis

Background

Measuring the evolution of countries in various related dimensions is essential for the evaluation of progress and compliance with the set of sustainable development goals. However, the main dilemma lies in how to achieve rapid progress towards sustainability without compromising national and regional stability, equity, or economic viability. The main objective of this paper is to propose a new country classification guide to assess whether the framework can also be used by authorities worldwide to provide a more detailed perspective of the current situation, thereby enabling the detection of problems, the setting of objectives, a better understanding of the results, and the identification of optimal policy actions.

Results

The data analysed are from the period 2004–2018 for 30 European countries, and 13 used variables are grouped into three dimensions: economic structure, energy supply policy, and energy consumption. Cluster analysis is carried out in two steps. In the first step, a time-series cluster analysis is performed for each of the three typologies of variables using Dynamic Time Warping and Complete Linkage algorithm. Each country is subsequently assigned a qualitative three-dimensional vector that indicates cluster membership for each typology. This vector is used as input, and the Lin distance and Ward algorithm are applied to group the countries in the final step. Nine final clusters are obtained. Despite the difference in the number of clusters at each dimension, certain geographical and cultural homogeneity can be found.

Conclusions

The diversity of energy and environmental performance among European countries underlines the need for concrete policies that integrate the specific socioeconomic, energy and environmental contexts of each country. Strategies implemented so far have proven insufficient to address disparities in economic development, energy dependence and renewable energy uptake, and tailored approaches are essential. These insights provide policy makers with a sound basis for designing informed strategies that balance progress towards sustainability. The implementation of adapted policies can accelerate the energy transition, optimise resources and strengthen lagging regions, fostering a more cohesive and uniform European energy strategy. Future research could apply this methodology to other regions or thematic areas, extending variables and territories to generate global rankings and further explore sustainability challenges.