俄乌冲突对全球航运供应链弹性的影响

IF 2.4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY

Regional Studies in Marine Science Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI:10.1016/j.rsma.2025.104502

Jihong Chen , Qing Fang , Chenggang Li , Xiaofei Xu , Yufeng Mao , Feng Yu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用2000年至2023年期间来自27个国家的面板数据，应用分位数控制方法（QCM）定量调查俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突对全球海上供应链弹性的影响。结果表明，冲突显著降低了全球海运供应链的弹性，其中欧洲（15.09%）、（15.09 %）、亚洲（12.09 %）和非洲（7.75 %）的降幅最为明显。相比之下，冲突对美洲和大洋洲的供应链弹性没有统计上的显著影响。具体而言，俄罗斯和乌克兰的海上供应链弹性分别下降了2.78 %和1.35 %。这些发现为指导政策制定减轻地缘政治冲突对海上供应链的影响提供了经验证据。

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Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the resilience of global shipping supply chains

Utilizing panel data from 27 countries spanning the period from 2000 to 2023, this study applies the Quantile Control Method (QCM) to quantitatively investigate the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the global maritime supply chains resilience. The results indicate that the conflict has significantly reduced the resilience of global maritime supply chains, with the most pronounced declines observed in Europe (15.09%),(15.09 %), Asia (12.09 %), and Africa (7.75 %). In contrast, the conflict did not statistically significant impact on the supply chain resilience in the Americas and Oceania. Specifically, the maritime supply chain resilience of Russia and Ukraine declined by 2.78 % and 1.35 %, respectively. These findings offer empirical evidence to guide policymaking on mitigating the impacts of geopolitical conflicts on maritime supply chains.

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来源期刊

Regional Studies in Marine Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

4.80%

发文量

336

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： REGIONAL STUDIES IN MARINE SCIENCE will publish scientifically sound papers on regional aspects of maritime and marine resources in estuaries, coastal zones, continental shelf, the seas and oceans.