Abdullah Hasan Hassan, Dipo Aldila, Muhamad Hifzhudin Noor Aziz, Putri Zahra Kamalia, Olumuyiwa James Peter
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引用次数: 0
摘要
猴痘最近死灰复燃,需要制定有效的控制战略来管理其传播。本研究提出了一种综合的方法来建模和控制Mpox动力学,将人类移动性纳入确定性框架。我们首先构建一个详细的模型,整合人类的流动性,提供疾病传播的现实描述。随后,我们分析了无病平衡,并计算了基本繁殖数\(\mathcal {R}_0\)。该研究还制定了一个最优控制问题,确定了通过流动性、治疗和动物控制来减轻Mpox传播的最有效策略。我们执行参数估计和模型拟合,以确保模型的准确性和与实际数据的相关性。使用偏秩相关系数(PRCC)和超立方体抽样的全局敏感性分析确定哪些参数最显著地影响\(\mathcal {R}_0\)。数值模拟表明,完全封锁可以防止传播,而限制所有移动会延迟爆发,但会延长爆发的时间。内部活动控制优于不受约束的活动,大大降低了感染高峰。只有治疗的方法可以减少大约50例病例%, whereas animal control prevents outbreaks by lowering human exposure. The most effective technique involves movement restrictions, medication, and animal management, reducing peak infections by more than 90%. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that transmission rates and mobility patterns have the most significant influence on disease spread. Our findings provide a robust framework for controlling Mpox transmission, focusing on the critical role of human mobility and providing practical information for public health interventions.
An Optimal Control Problem for a Monkeypox Transmission Model with Activity-Driven Contact Patterns
The recent resurgence of Monkeypox (Mpox) necessitates the development of effective control strategies to manage its transmission. This study presents a comprehensive approach to modeling and controlling Mpox dynamics by incorporating human mobility into a deterministic framework. We begin by constructing a detailed model that integrates human mobility, providing a realistic depiction of the disease’s spread. Subsequently, we analyze the disease-free equilibrium and calculate the basic reproduction number, \(\mathcal {R}_0\). The study also formulates an optimal control problem, identifying the most effective strategies for mitigating Mpox spread through mobility, treatment, and animal control. We perform parameter estimation and model fitting to ensure the model’s accuracy and relevance to real-world data. A global sensitivity analysis using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and hypercube sampling determines which parameters most significantly influence \(\mathcal {R}_0\). Numerical simulations show that a complete lockdown prevents transmission, whereas limiting all movement delays outbreaks but extends their length. Internal mobility control outperforms unconstrained movement, considerably reducing infection peaks. Treatment-only approaches reduce cases by about 50%, whereas animal control prevents outbreaks by lowering human exposure. The most effective technique involves movement restrictions, medication, and animal management, reducing peak infections by more than 90%. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that transmission rates and mobility patterns have the most significant influence on disease spread. Our findings provide a robust framework for controlling Mpox transmission, focusing on the critical role of human mobility and providing practical information for public health interventions.
期刊介绍:
The Brazilian Journal of Physics is a peer-reviewed international journal published by the Brazilian Physical Society (SBF). The journal publishes new and original research results from all areas of physics, obtained in Brazil and from anywhere else in the world. Contents include theoretical, practical and experimental papers as well as high-quality review papers. Submissions should follow the generally accepted structure for journal articles with basic elements: title, abstract, introduction, results, conclusions, and references.