Gas turbine capacity planning method incorporating tiered carbon trading and two-stage power-to-gas integration

To address the challenges of high carbon emissions in traditional power systems, which conflict with China’s “dual carbon” strategy, and the difficulty of integrating wind power into the grid, this study proposes a novel gas turbine capacity planning method that integrates a tiered carbon trading mechanism, two-stage power-to-gas (P2G) devices, and Carbon capture power plants (CCPP). First, a joint operation model is developed, integrating gas turbines, two-stage P2G devices, CCPP, and wind turbines while accounting for wind power output uncertainty. Then, a tiered carbon trading mechanism is introduced. Unlike conventional models that apply a uniform carbon price, the proposed framework adopts a differentiated carbon cost structure to better reflect emission levels and incentivize cleaner energy deployment. The objective is to minimize the total investment and operational costs of the system, subject to standard operational constraints and transmission security limits. Finally, case studies based on a modified IEEE 30-bus system are conducted to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the proposed mechanism, gas turbines, and P2G devices on economic performance, wind power utilization, and carbon emissions. The results confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the planning model, highlight the roles of carbon trading policy, natural gas prices, and hydrogen storage efficiency, and offer valuable insights for investment decision-making under carbon and energy market uncertainties.