Model-based trends in the estimated number of children affected by maternal cancer diagnosis or death in Finland in 1968-2022.

Background and purpose: Cancer is among the leading causes of premature death worldwide, and, in Finland, it is the most common cause of death among women aged 15-64 years who may be parenting minor children. We aim to estimate how many children are affected by maternal cancer or cancer death and if this has changed in Finland. Patient/material and methods: We used female cancers (Finnish Cancer Registry), cancer deaths, fertility rates in women and mortality rates in children (Statistics Finland) to calculate the model-based annual trend estimates of new and prevalent children under 18 years whose mother was diagnosed with cancer and new and prevalent orphans by maternal cancer type in Finland between 1968 and 2022.

Results: The estimated rate of children whose mother was diagnosed with cancer increased 1.3% annually since 1996. In 2022, the rates of new and prevalent children with maternal cancer were 218.4 and 1522.4 per 100,000, corresponding to 2,334 and 16,803 children. On the contrary, the estimated rate of new orphans due to maternal cancer mortality decreased 1.2% annually since 1998. In 2022, the age- standardised rates of new and prevalent orphans were 26.4 and 166.7 per 100,000 children, corresponding to 285 and 1,850 orphans due to maternal cancer mortality.

Interpretation: We estimated that the rate of new orphans due to maternal cancer mortality has declined over the past decades, which has benefited children. However, the increase in cancer incidence among mothers with minor children showed an opposite trend, indicating more intergenerational consequences due to cancer.