资产估值偏离本福德定律：市场价格vs.专家估计

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.108492

Manuel Cano-Rodríguez

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了基于人为判断的资产估值是否比基于市场价格的资产估值更偏离本福德定律。本文使用来自SEC N-PORT文件的超过1.2亿份观察结果，使用公允价值层次（FV1, FV2, FV3）来检查资产估值中不同程度的人力投入如何影响与BL的一致性。汇总分析表明，尽管基于市场价格的第一级公允价值估值更符合本福德定律，但专家驱动的估计-第2级和第3级公允价值估计的偏差非常适度。在资产类别分析中，一些FV1值比它们的FV2或FV3值偏差更大。这些发现提醒我们，不要假设市场价格总是符合基准，或者专家驱动的估计必然会出现分歧。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Deviations from Benford’s law in asset valuations: Market prices vs. expert estimates

This paper examines whether asset valuations based on human judgment deviate more from Benford’s Law (BL) than those based on market prices. Using over 120 million observations from SEC N-PORT filings, this paper uses the fair value hierarchy (FV1, FV2, FV3) to examine how different degrees of human input in asset valuation affect conformity with BL. Aggregate analysis shows that, although level 1 fair value valuations, based on market prices, conform more closely to Benford’s Law, deviations for expert-driven estimates—levels 2 and 3 fair value estimates—are remarkably modest. In the asset-category analysis, some FV1 values deviate more than their FV2 or FV3 counterparts. These findings caution against assuming that market prices always conform to BL or that expert-driven estimates necessarily diverge.

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance