Travel time tolerance of alternative paths in road networks: A national survey study in China

Providing travelers with a reasonable number of alternative paths is important for improving transportation network resilience against disruptions. However, travelers may reject overly long paths as alternative paths when their primarily used paths become unavailable, and the travel time tolerance of alternative paths has not been extensively explored. This study investigates travel time tolerance in car journeys along alternative paths and applies survival analysis theory to address two fundamental questions: “What main factors influence the tolerance?” and “How to estimate the tolerance?”. Tolerance herein refers to the maximum additional travel time accepted by travelers for alternative paths compared to the shortest path travel time. A national survey of over 2,500 valid responses from 305 cities across China reveals statistically significant results: (1) commuters generally exhibit lower tolerance than non-commuters; (2) travelers in developing areas show higher tolerance than those in metropolitan areas; (3) tolerance typically increases with travel distance; and (4) personal attributes such as age, gender, income, travel mode, and commuting duration also influence tolerance. To address complexities of these influences, we propose universal estimation methods using non-linear fitting and accelerated failure time models from both aggregated and disaggregated perspectives. These methods enable to quantify the number of alternative paths within travelers’ tolerance based on city specifics and travelers’ information. This study helps in planning alternative paths that are potentially acceptable to travelers and enhances understanding of travelers’ behavior under disruptions, leading to better road network resilience assessment.