Climate change, urbanisation and transmission potential: Aedes aegypti mosquito projections forecast future arboviral disease hotspots in Brazil.

Background: Climate change and urban expansion pose significant challenges to controlling Aedes aegypti mosquito populations, a primary vector of arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. This study aims assess how climate and anthropogenic factors will jointly shape Ae. aegypti densities in Brazil, which is crucial to forecasting transmission risks and informing public health strategies.

Methods: This study combined a biologically informed, stage-structured delay-differential equation model with climate and anthropogenic data. Climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were used to forecast future climate scenarios from 2024 to 2080. Boosted Regression Trees integrated anthropogenic factors like urbanisation, population growth, and urban accessibility. Model outputs were validated with entomological surveillance data, and the basic reproductive number for dengue fever was used to assess changes in disease transmission potential.

Findings: Our findings predicted that Ae. aegypti mosquito density will increase nationally, but unevenly, exceeding thermal limits in North Brazil while rising substantially in the South and Southeast. Increases in density were particularly pronounced under high greenhouse gas emission scenario SSP5-8.5 (up to 92% in the Southeast). These trends were projected to elevate the transmission potential for dengue fever, with Southeast Brazil facing the biggest increases due to mosquito population growth outpacing human population expansion. Validation against historical data confirmed model robustness.

Interpretation: By directly linking mosquito abundance to SSP-specific emissions trajectories, our results show that climate mitigation can markedly reduce disease risk. Shifting from SSP5-8.5 to SSP1-2.6 could cut projected mosquito density increases from 31% to 11% nationally by 2080. The model's spatial granularity and integration of local administrative boundaries support its utility for national and sub-national health planning. Addressing compounded risks in vulnerable peri-urban and rural populations will require coordinated interventions that span climate policy, vector control, and health equity.